Ultra Short Term Wind Forecasting using Facebook Prophet

Abstract

In the domain of Wind forecasting, Ultra Short term wind forecasting is one of the challenging and important part in the power generation as well as in the energy management system. The need of the ultra short wind forecasting in which, the wind is forecasted in the 10 minutes time stamp for the sake of the pitch and yaw control in the wind turbine to extract the maximum efficiency in the power generation. Here, the forecasting model named facebook prophet is implemented due to the its robustness in capturing the seasonality of the highly volatile wind speed. Performance evaluation metric like root mean square error(RMSE) is calculated for the model evaluation.